Not Really A "Stimulus"
While Congress and the media refer to their money drops as a "Stimulus" it really isn’t a “stimulus” at all. “Stimulus” is defined as something that encourages, or boosts, incremental activity, i.e., an incentive. But, what we have seen so far is simply transfer payments that don’t encourage or boost economic activity, but simply try to replace and maintain incomes. In fact, there is a great deal of “disincentive” for those receiving more in unemployment insurance payments than they earned in their employment to actually return to those jobs, a complaint of many businesses as documented in the latest Fed Beige Book
Prepare for what's Down the Road
As Jamie Dimon CEO of JP Morgan Chase stated “This is not a normal recession… the recessionary part of this you’re going to see down the road.” This observation is spot on. Dimon was observing that, while government had shut down much of the “nonessential” (i.e., 80%) economy, they also transferred $2.1 trillion to private households which more than made up for the $720+ billion of lost wages. We have seen many reports of those on state unemployment insurance programs receiving more money than they were earning in their jobs. In fact, personal income in the year’s first half is actually up +6% (+12% annual rate). [Then there is the observed increase in day trading in the equity markets by former sports gamers, purportedly using such transfer payments.] There has also been forbearance regarding rent payments, mortgage payments, credit card payments, student loan payments… So, it isn’t any wonder why, while small businesses are closing at Armageddon rates and large business bankruptcies are skyrocketing, the real recessionary pain has yet to be felt.
Existing home sales surge nearly 21% in June – the highest monthly gain on record
• Sales of existing homes jumped nearly 21% in June compared with May, according to the National Association of Realtors.
• This is the largest monthly gain since the Realtors began tracking the data in 1968.
• It came after sharp declines over the previous three months due to the coronavirus pandemic. Sales were still 11.3% lower annually.
Sales of existing homes jumped nearly 21% in June compared with May, according to the National Association of Realtors.
It was the largest monthly gain since the Realtors began tracking the data in 1968 and came after sharp declines over the previous three months due to the coronavirus pandemic. Sales were still 11.3% lower annually. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/existing-home-sales-surge-nearly-21percent-in-june-the-highest-monthly-gain-on-record.html
What a Falling U.S Dollar would mean to the Stock Market
The U.S. dollar is looking shaky. Barring some sort of currency meltdown, a weaker dollar should be a positive for equities, though foreign stocks will likely benefit more, analysts said.
On Monday, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.88%, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, slipped to a two-year low below 94.00, after a 1.6% slide last week.
That comes after hitting a more-than-three-year intraday high on March 22 just shy of 103, a day before the S&P 500 stock index SPX, 0.59% hit its low during the worst of the coronavirus pandemic. As the dollar has faded, stocks have rallied smartly, with the S&P 500 now just around 5% below its all-time high set on Feb. 21 after a 34% plunge earlier this year Source https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-a-falling-us-dollar-means-for-the-stock-market-2020-07-25?mod=newsviewer_click
When you reopen your office these links may help
Below are some links to government websites with helpful information
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/guidance-business-response.html
https://www.osha.gov/Publications/OSHA3990.pdf
https://www.eeoc.gov/wysk/what-you-should-know-about-covid-19-and-ada-rehabilitation-act-and-other-eeo-laws
