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Week In Review Last week marked the end on the first month of trading in 2024. Three of the four major indices posted a positive return for January with the S&P posting a +1.59% return followed by the DOW +1.22% and the NASDAQ +1.02%. The Russell 2000 ended the month of January down -3.93%.  However the week ended much higher the S&P 500 closed last week at all-time highs. Equity market headlines were littered with large U.S. names announcing quarterly results. Microsoft Corp. announced quarterly results with earnings besting estimates by 5% and revenue by 1%. Despite the beats there are some worries on their cloud business growth, but management assured the street Azure growth remained stable, all told shares rallied 1.8% last week. Apple Inc. announced quarterly results that also were not well received by investors. The hardware giant continues its struggle in China, where revenues were $20.8b for 4Q falling below $23.5b expectations. Also missing expectations were wearable’s, iPads and Mac’s revenues. Top line revenue still bested expectations carried by iPhone revenues. Overall, their shares sank 3.4% last week as concerns from their China business and their overall iPhone refresh cycle remain an overhang for investors. Facebook and Instagram parent Meta Inc. had a blockbuster earnings announcement which added $197b to its market cap after shares rallied 20.5% last week. Meta announced earnings and revenue well above analyst expectations and they announced next quarter guidance ahead of expectations as well. They announced a $50b buyback and initiated a dividend of $0.50 per share putting to bed any lingering apprehension on when, and how much, cash they planned to return shareholders Treasury yields finished the week mixed, as shorter duration yields ended higher while longer duration yields fell. The focus was on Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve as the first FOMC meeting of the new year took place last Wednesday. The Fed didn’t change short-term interest rates, nor did it alter the pace of Quantitative Tightening, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell had a more confident tune during his press conference. He stated that incoming data has been in-line with what the Fed wants to see to start the rate cut process and that there isn’t a reason to expect the positive progression of inflation data to shift in the months ahead. In addition, the Fed chair made an appearance on 60 minutes on Sunday night, which was taped in advance of the broadcast reiterated that rates are going to stay where they are until the Fed has more confidence that inflation will not bounce back up. Markets seem to be responding to that on Monday as of this writing. The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 49.1 in January, beating the consensus expected 47.2. Activity in the US manufacturing sector contracted for the fifteenth consecutive month in January, but the details of the report show some signs of improvement. Nonfarm productivity increased 3.2% at an annual rate in the fourth quarter, beating the consensus expected gain of 2.5%. Both output and hours rose, but output rose at a faster pace, leading to more output per hour. Nonfarm payrolls increased 353,000 in January, beating the consensus expected 185,000. Payroll gains for November and December were revises up by a total of 126,000, bringing the net gain, including revisions, to 479,000

Week In Review All four of the Major indices ended the week in positive territory wit the Russell 2000 returning +1.75% followed by the S&P 500 +1.06 the NSADAQ +0.94% and the DOW +0.65%. Three of the indices rose for a third consecutive week as the first reading of Q4 economic growth came in stronger than expected and some earnings topped expectations. The S&P index ended Friday's session at 4,890.97, up from the previous week's closing level of 4,839.81, which was a record at the time. The index continued to reach new closing highs each day this week through Thursday, when it closed at 4,894.16. It set a fresh intraday high on Friday at 4,906.69 but ended just below Thursday's record close. The market benchmark is now up 2.5% for the month. US real gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 3.3% in Q4, according to an advance estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The consensus was for a 2% gain in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. In the third quarter, real GDP grew 4.9%. The GDP report came as a number of quarterly earnings reports have surpassed expectations. Companies that posted stronger-than-expected financial results this week included Visa (V), International Business Machines (IBM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Airlines (AAL). Its safe to say that the economy is strong and this will be Treasury yields were mixed last week as short-term Treasury yields fell slightly and long-term Treasury yields rose moderately, causing the yield curve to become slightly less inverted. The 2-Year and 10-Year US Treasury yields ended last week higher at 4.37% and 4.16%, respectively, the highest level since early December, this despite Core PCE printing at its lowest level since March 2021. This reinforced investors that the FOMC would hold rates at current levels well past the March meeting Elsewhere, the 10-Year German bund yield fell while UK gilt yields rose, ultimately ending the week at 2.30% and 3.96%, respectively On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged while stating that the certainty of achieving projections has increased gradually. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada also left rates unchanged and signaled that they are finished increasing rates. Short-term yields dropped moderately on Thursday as the European Central Bank signaled that moves to lower rates in 2024 may be earlier than expected. The market implied probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve Bank during The January 31st meeting stayed unchanged at 3%, and the probability of a cut at the March 20th meeting stayed relatively unchanged at 48%. The market implied Federal Funds Rate at the end of 2024 also stayed relatively unchanged at 3.99%. Oil prices rose 6% over the course of the week on geopolitical tensions.